NFL Week 11 Recap
November 20th, 2013
Our NFL picks rebounded nicely in Week 11, going 8-4-3 (0.667) against the spread, and 11-4 (0.733) straight up. Our high confidence picks fared particularly well, as our picks over 54% confidence went 7-2-2 (0.778). After Week 11, this version of our algorithm has gone 68-72-6 (0.486) against the spread, and 84-62 (0.575) straight-up.
NCAA Football Week 12 Recap
November 19th, 2013
We had a pretty average week in college football picks, going 26-24 (0.520) against the spread. However, our straight-up picks continued to be very successful, going 39-11 (0.780) this week. In fact, our 27 highest confidence straight-up picks went a remarkable 26-1 (0.963)! Through Week 12, this version of our algorithm has gone 260-263-7 (0.497) against the apread and 372-158 (0.702) straight-up.
NFL Week 10 Recap
November 12th, 2013
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you just have to have to laugh. Our picks went a comical 2-11-1 against the spread and 5-9 straight up. To be fair, calling this week in the NFL crazy would be an understatement. Two winless teams defeated teams that were .500 (Jags over Titans and Bucs over Dolphins), with one of those victories coming on the road. The Rams defeated the Colts in Indy by 30 points, the same Colts that have notched wins against the Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers this season. The Packers lost by 14 at home in Aaron Rodgers' absence. The Panthers stymied the 49ers in San Francisco. The one benefit to all the chaos is that bettors have become hesitant to pick favorites against big lines, and it shows in the early lines for Week 11 matchups. 8 of 15 lines are three points or less, and 12 of 15 are seven points or less. Hopefully good odds will be offered for favorites this week.
NCAA Football Week 11 Recap
November 10th, 2013
Our college football picks got back on track in Week 11, as we went 30-20 (0.600) against the spread and 38-12 (0.760) straight up. Our high confidence picks were particularly successful, as picks over 55% confidence went 21-11 (0.656) against the spread, picks over 60% confidence went 12-6 (0.667), and picks over 65% confidence went 7-3 (0.700). Additionally, 19 out of our 50 projections came within 7 points of the actual outcome. This week's performance brings us to 188-202-4 (0.482) against the spread on the year, but we would be 234-239-7 (0.495) against the spread if we had been using the current algorithm for the entire season.
NFL Week 9 Recap, overview of current algorithm
November 5th, 2013
We had a very good week in the NFL, going a 8-5 (0.615) against the spread and 9-4 (0.692) straight-up. Oddly, our five highest confidence picks went 2-3 (0.400) while our remaining eight picks went 6-2 (0.750). Nevertheless, this was our second consecutive week with a winning record. Our most accurate projection was picking the Titans to beat the Rams by 6.7 (the actual margin was 7 for the Titans), and 5 of our 13 projections came within 7 points of the actual outcome.
Much like our college football algorithm, our NFL algorithm has been changed several times over the course of the season. We feel that it is our obligation to inform our users about the performance of the algorithm that will be used to make predictions going forward. As such, here is a quick overview of our current NFL algorithm. This algorithm is based on results from the 2007-2012 NFL seasons, as well as games from the first few weeks of the 2013 season. During that period of time, this algorithm has compiled a record of 753-694-39 (0.520) against the spread and 943-541-2 (0.635) straight-up. Additionally, this algorithm's higher confidence picks have performed noticeably better, as picks over 60% confidence have gone 300-266-16 (0.530), picks over 70% confidence have gone 85-45-5 (0.654), and picks over 80% confidence have gone 17-4 (0.810). For the first nine weeks of the 2013 NFL season, this algorithm has a record of 58-57-2 (0.504) against the spread and 68-49 (0.581) straight-up. While both of these numbers are lower than the algorithm's historical performance, the worst record this algorithm has posted against the spread for a full season between 2007 and 2012 was 118-113-4 (0.511) in 2008. We've had some poor luck so far this season, but at this time there is reason to believe this algorithm will be successful going forward.
NCAAF Week 10 Recap, overview of current algorithm
November 3rd, 2013
Week 10 was yet another tough week for our college football picks. Overall we went 17-32 (0.347) against the spread, despite going 35-14 (0.714) picking games straight-up. Our high confidence picks fared slightly better, as our top 10 picks (all over 66% confidence) went 5-5 (0.500). Our most accurate projection of the week was picking Penn State to beat Illinois by 8.2 points, whereas Penn State actually won by 7 points. Overall, 13 of our 49 projections came within 7 points of the actual outcome.
As many of you are aware, we have changed our college football algorithm several times over the course of the year. However, we have no intention of changing the algorithm again until the offseason. Here's a brief overview of the algorithm that we will be using to pick games for the rest of the season. This algorithm is based on results from the 2012 season and the first half of the 2013 season. If we had been using this algorithm for this entire season, we would have an overall record of 204-219-7 (0.482) against the spread and 295-135 (0.686) straight-up. However, our higher confidence picks have performed better, as our picks over 60% confidence have gone 127-131-2 (0.492) against the spread, and our picks over 70% confidence have gone 68-50-2 (0.576) against the spread. So even though our overall record against the spread is far from impressive, our straight-up picks have done quite well, and our high confidence against the spread picks have performed satisfactorily as well. Hopefully our overall performance will improve soon.
NBA Section now live!
November 2nd, 2013
We are very excited to announce that we are now offering NBA picks! Our NBA system works just like our NFL and NCAA football systems, and is based off of results from the 2012-2013 NBA season. We also plan to regularly post NBA Power Rankings, much like the NFL Power Rankings and NCAA football Top 25. Please let us know if you see any typos or other mistakes in the NBA section, it's been a little hectic getting it set up but hopefully we've eliminated any errors. Also please let us know if you have any suggestions for the NBA section!
NFL algorithm tweaked, ESPN Pigskin Pick'em group set up
October 16th, 2013
Week 8 college picks and Week 7 NFL picks have been posted! We have tweaked our NFL algorithm once again. This is the last time we plan on changing the algorithm this season, although we may also tweak the college algorithm soon. Also, just for fun, we've set up a group on ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game. See if you can pick more NFL games correctly against the spread than our algorithm!
Picks posted, formula modified
October 10th, 2013
Our Week 7 college football picks and Week 6 NFL picks have now been posted. Please note that we have modified our formula slightly, hopefully this version will produce better results. If we had been using this formula all season, our record for college games would be 78-64-3 (0.549) and 23-20-2 (0.535) for the NFL. We will be posting game previews for both college and NFL games as quickly as we can over the next few days, so check back often!
Site back up, algorithm tweaked
October 9th, 2013
A few big announcements:
The site is now back up! We're very sorry for the downtime, but we've switched to a new hosting provider so hopefully this won't happen again. Thank you for your patience.
Also, we have tweaked our college football algorithm due to its unsatisfactory performance this year. The formula is basically the same, we have just slightly changed a few of the coefficients which will hopefully predict outcomes more accurately. If we had been using this version of the formula for the entire season, our record would be 78-64-3 (0.549). We may also tweak the NFL algorithm in a similar way.
We are working to get all of the picks for this week up as soon as possible. Hopefully we will have everything posted sometime this afternoon or this evening, but we will make an announcement on here as soon as picks are available. Thank you for your interest in our site!
Official NFL and college picks begin!
September 20th, 2013
We now have enough data to start making official picks for both college football and the NFL. Before this week, all of our picks had been based on results from the 2012 season, but from here on out our picks will be based on the current season. Take a look at our Week 4 picks for college football and our Week 3 picks for the NFL.
NFL and college preview picks successful!
September 10th, 2013
Two weeks into the 2013 football season, our college football preview picks have gone 36-30 (0.545) and our NFL preview picks have gone 10-5-1 (0.667). We've published our preview picks for Week 3 of the college season and Week 2 of the NFL season. We should have enough data to publish official picks in both leagues next week.
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NCAA Football section now live!
September 2nd, 2013
The NCAA Football section is now live! Both Week 1 results and Week 2 picks have been posted. Also, Week 1 picks for the 2013 NFL season have been posted. Remember that all picks are based on the previous season's results until Week 3. Be sure to check back throughout the week for updates as Vegas lines fluctuate.
NCAA Football preview picks, round two
August 30th, 2013
Last night's "hypothetical picks" for college football did well, so here's some more for this weekend. Remember that these picks are based on each team's performance last year:
Michigan State (-28) over Western Michigan
Miami, FL (-31.5) over Florida Atlantic
SMU (+4) over Texas Tech
Alabama (-21) over Virginia Tech
Cincinnati (-10.5) over Purdue
Oklahoma State (-13) over Mississippi State
Penn State (-8.5) over Syracuse
BYU (-1) over Virginia
Northern Illinois (+3) over Iowa
Auburn (-15.5) over Washington State
Western Kentucky (+4) over Kentucky
Georgia (-1.5) over Clemson
LSU (-4) over TCU
Washington (-3.5) over Boise State
Northwestern (-5.5) over California
Louisville (-20.5) over Ohio
Colorado State (-2.5) over Colorado
NCAA Football preview picks
August 29th, 2013
Are you ready for some football?
The SmartBets system doesn't start making picks until Week 3, but who wants to wait until then? Here's what we would have picked if tonight's college football games had taken place at the end of last year (so take it with a grain of salt):
South Carolina (-11.5) over North Carolina
Minnesota (-13.5) over UNLV
Tulsa (+3.5) over Bowling Green
UCF (-23) over Akron
Utah State (+2.5) over Utah
Ole Miss (-3) over Vanderbilt
Fresno State (-11) over Rutgers
Southern Cal (-23.5) over Hawaii